Why Do Governments Make Promises They Cannot Keep? Evidence from India’s National Clean Air Programme

• Authors: Archana Dhinakar Bala, Martin Mattsson, and Sangita Vyas
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What are the consequences of setting ambitious air pollution targets? This paper studies this question in the context of South Asia, where it is estimated that 1.3 million people die annually from exposure to air pollution. The Indian Government created the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) with an ambitious aim to reduce air pollution in 131 cities by 40% by 2026. If successful, NCAP would be one of the most important environmental policies in history. We evaluate the effect of NCAP using a difference-in-differences approach that compares NCAP cities to cities not covered by NCAP, and find a precisely estimated zero effect. Using a survey experiment, we show that residents of NCAP cities are more satisfied with the government’s actions when told about the ambitious targets, even after being told that the government’s policy had no effect. These public opinion benefits can explain why the government sets unrealistic targets that it then fails to meet.

Photo by Mike Marrah.